QUEUE SPILLOVERS IN TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS WITH A ROUTE CHOICE

Carlos F. Daganzo

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
and Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Berkeley CA 94720

(January 18, 1996)


ABSTRACT

This note uses a simple network to highlight some important properties of the traffic assignment problem with physical queues. In particular:

  1. that by increasing the capacity of a congested link its queue can grow larger,
  2. that the network can become oversaturated as a result of such an "improvement",
  3. that even under the most favorable assumptions, and in contrast to the conventional problem with point queues, the network can be stable both in an oversaturated and undersaturated state.
  4. that temporary disturbances can permanently reverse the saturation state of the network, and as a corollary
  5. that the solution of the time-dependent problem can be so sensitive to the input data (chaotic behavior) so as to make it impossible to obtain reliable predictions.

These findings have deep implications vis-a-vis current efforts to "solve" the dynamic traffic assignment problem by means of detailed network models because (as in weather forecasting) it may be impossible to obtain input data with the required accuracy to make even rough predictions of link flows and times.


Go back to Carlos Daganzo's Publications Page


Document maintained on server: http://www.ce.berkeley.edu/
Last update 6/11/96